The world, with all its conventional institutions, is now facing an existential challenge. The war in Ukraine is shaking up the established order and changing the geopolitical situation. Food and energy are becoming more than ever the new trump cards in the game of influence and power relations, both in the immediate, short, long and medium terms. What volume of production will be on the market? To whom? For whom? At what price? Under what conditions? When and for how long? Food and energy independence will be the keystone of all development policies from now on, along with the health issue of course.

All the countries of the world, each according to its degree of exposure to the risks of shortages, and according to its means of dealing with them, must revise its supply strategy. If Europe is the most exposed with its strong dependence with Russia and Ukraine. Africa and Madagascar, with its arable land, its strategic resources, its energy potential and its young population, must analyze the current events as an opportunity to redefine the roles. Moreover, the continent has already been an eye-catcher, and has been subjected to the diplomatic balance of power of these geopolitical powers ever since, for these same issues related to food, energy and other strategic resources. 

However, in order to face up to and weigh in on this global balance of power, Africa and Madagascar will need a completely different strategy, especially diplomatic, as well as a strong, assertive, common vision. This is not a foregone conclusion, given the disparity in the state of development between its members, despite the existence of some regional concentrations. The search for a development consensus requires a lot of will, and above all, its implementation requires time. A strong African Union requires strong African states. Madagascar, and Africa as a whole, have the necessary and largely sufficient arguments in terms of energy and agriculture to meet the challenge.

It is up to each country to see or review their ambitions, their plan and their development strategy in order to exist as a Country first. Only then can Africa hope for the advent of a community capable of asserting its point of view on the international scene. It is therefore imperative for each of us to work both to establish our own sovereignty and to consolidate our independence before any other regional, continental or planetary common desire. To do this, we need a strong State with strong institutions and structures to create an environment conducive to development, and an intelligent State capable of collective and inclusive vision to find a sustainable consensus for development.

Madagascar can play a leading role in both agriculture and energy. Its potential in these sectors is no longer up for discussion. However, a distinction must be made between potentiality, reality and exploitation. As a start, to manage these states, findings or diagnoses of our wealth, having a vision of what we want is imperative regarding the “what, how, when, with whom and why”. This is where a developmental State comes into play to phase and plan reflections and actions. Our immediate imperative is to ensure self-sufficiency as a guarantee of our sovereignty in future decisions. Then, to schedule the study and the exploitation of our various resources in an exhaustive way, and to make a trade-off with respect to our development ambitions.  

If the importance of the stakes of agriculture and energy remains unchanged, the implementation of the strategy for the development of the agricultural sector is fairly easy, considering that all the related decisions, as well as the mobilization of the necessary resources, can be taken at the level of the Country. On the other hand, to achieve our energy ambitions, the solicitation is broader and more global, in terms of purpose, technology, finance and human resources. Then, the mobilization and negotiation of all this goes far beyond our borders. This implies choices motivated more by diplomatic and geopolitical criteria than by purely technical aspects. This is where the preliminary question of sovereignty is important.

Precisely, what about Madagascar's sovereignty to deal with these eminently strategic and geopolitical issues for its own interests? Free and independent our Country is. But because we still import rice, edible oil, sugar, flour, fuel, medicines, cloth, in short, the most basic needs of our population. And because our exports are not able to meet our needs in foreign currency to buy them. As a result, even the functioning of our administration still depends on external aid. It is therefore difficult to imagine our country imposing its choices on issues that involve and engage the balance of world power. It just makes good sense.

Today, according to the World Bank, only 15 percent of the population has access to electricity, of which 6 percent in rural areas through the network. Firewood and charcoal remain the cooking energy used by almost all households. Transport energy and the energy for the purpose of electricity production remain in the hands of private companies, which thus have not only a considerable financial windfall that makes them hyper-powerful, but also a means of exerting pressure on the State in relation to all strategic issues relating to energy. Either we find a way to make the State stronger and able to engage in an arm wrestle with the oil companies in order to make our points of view known; or we deal with them... At least in the current state of affairs.

It is clear that neither these pressure groups’ stakes and ambitions nor their timetable will always correspond to our interests as a Country. The proof of this is the case of the heavy oil of Tsimiroro, which the technical tests have validated to feed the JIRAMA generators; at least according to the official public information available. It is quite possible that other technical or administrative questions remain before the use of the oil becomes effective. But at this stage of exploitation, with all that has been invested financially and technically, are the remaining obstacles so insurmountable as to deprive ourselves of a real and immediate opportunity to relieve our trade balance?

Without a strong, intelligent and developmental State, our potential for wealth will always remain our first cause of poverty. To break this vicious circle of poverty, let us proceed by what is within our reach as Malagasy first. To equip ourselves with a public power able to compose with the various private interests at stake to serve the general interest. Development is a continuous process which implies intelligent consensus all along its course. It is utopian to hope that the private sector will renounce its interests, nor to conceive that the current situation could last indefinitely. But the State remains in absolute terms the guarantor of the collective good, of the common goods and of the general interest, as well as the protection of the Private sector…

... Finding this mix that provides a stable balance is the tough alchemy of real sustainable development, socially, environmentally and economically.

The full text is available in the 14th edition of The American magazine that can be downloaded in PDF format here.