Economists, travelers, and even ordinary but staunch patriotic citizens are concerned with what is coming next for the Malagasy air transport. Currently in a worrying situation, the national airline is being shaken up by some turbulence, and we do not know when it will end.

Ups and downs

Before Madagascar regained its independence, the scaling and development of the Malagasy air transport had been outstanding both with the international (France and Eastern Africa) and domestic networks – the densest network in the world at that time. For passenger flights, the Air France company – formerly colonial – played a major role in the launch of the Malagasy civil aviation. Other airlines, including Madair in 1961 (that became Air Madagascar one year later) came out afterwards.

Later, unlike in other countries, only a few European countries (France, Switzerland, Germany, and Italy) were serviced by long-haul flights from and to Madagascar. Only liaisons with a few African countries (Kenya, South Africa and the neighboring islands) were available at the regional level. We had to wait until the end of the 90’s to see the Malagasy national airline to service Asia for the first time, choosing Singapore as unique destination. Connections with Thailand and China were created in the 2000’s. Unfortunately, some of these services did not last long, mainly due to the lack of political and economic stability.

Within the last five years before the Covid-19 pandemic, Madagascar recorded an annual growth of 6.5 percent in the international air passenger traffic. No need to recall that due to the closure of our borders, the figures have declined by 80 percent in 2020. Although international flights have resumed, we are still in a wobbly circumstance at the moment. The vaccination rate remains a key incentive for international tourists. For the time being, only 4.5 percent of our population is vaccinated; a very low rate compared with the world average, that is a bad signal enough to discourage potential tourists if drastic measures are not taken.

Additionally, the exorbitant airfare (valid for all airlines) is a significant barrier to the full recovery of tourism. With not enough competition – then not enough airplanes, there are not enough flights to meet the demand. To costly airfares, we can add other side fees and charges, including costs of Covid testing.

Air Madagascar: a huge asset caught in the midst of turbulence

The national airline, on the verge of collapse, does not manage to have a significant market share on its own base. Back in 2019, they operated only 32 percent of long-haul flights and 15 percent of regional services. The figures have worsened during the pandemic with respectively 16 percent and 6 percent in 2021. The state-owned company is burdened with an 80-million-dollar debt and went into a receivership. A rebranding to “Madagascar Airlines” is now on the table, but time will tell where current debates are going to lead us.

Either way, local travelers have recently noticed promotional offers by Tsaradia to boost domestic flights. Air Madagascar offers to refund passengers whose visa requests have been denied.  Furthermore, Madagascar remains a leading tourist destination. Minister of Tourism Joël Randriamandranto is looking forward to attracting tourists from Eastern Europe, Africa, and India.

Air transport and tourism are described as key sectors for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in a joint declaration by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili added, “Tourism and air travel are essential pillars of growth and opportunity, most notably for developing countries and communities.” In order to conciliate the rescue and the vision, the choice of a strategic partner for the national company is therefore critical. Thereby, as an island, yet a developing country, Madagascar has a clear comparative advantage in tourism; isn’t it the right time to substantially invest in air transport?

Hopefully, decisions will go the right way. Anyway, ladies and gentlemen, please fasten your seat belts. We are in the turbulence zone now!

Sources: www.madagascar-tourisme.com | ACM | Our World in Data | UNTWO | Note: “Post-Covid-19 forecasts are based on the gradual reopening of borders but not on the pandemic.”